Conflict-ravaged Burma Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it took control in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Observers say the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the freedoms of free speech, assembly or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the election under a new law which carries harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a film endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to boycott the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it difficult to predict a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while others are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are turning their back on "the path to democracy".